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Race time predictor calculator

Predicts a finish time at a new distance from a recent race result, using Riegel’s formula.

What this calculator does

Race time predictor works out predicts a finish time at a new distance from a recent race result, using Riegel’s formula. Enter your own figures above and the answer updates as you type: nothing is fixed in the code, so the result reflects exactly the numbers you supply.

The formula this calculator evaluates is printed under the tool and explained below, so you can check the working by hand or reuse it in a spreadsheet.

The formula

FormulaT₂ = T₁ × (D₂/D₁)^1.06

The inputs explained

FieldWhat to enter
Known distance (km)A number, measured in km. Starts at 10.
Known time (min)A number, measured in min. Starts at 50.
Target distance (km)A number, measured in km. Starts at 21.1.

Worked examples

Every figure in the tables below is produced by this page’s own calculator at build time, so the numbers and the tool always agree. Select any row to load that scenario.

How the answer changes with known distance

Every other input is held at the calculator’s starting values while known distance varies. Select any row to load that scenario into the calculator.

How the answer changes with known distance
Known distance (km)Predicted finish timePredicted time (minutes)Predicted pace
53:50:02230.0 min10:54 /km
7.52:29:40149.7 min7:06 /km
101:50:20110.3 min5:14 /km
151:11:4771.8 min3:24 /km
2052:5552.9 min2:30 /km
3034:2634.4 min1:38 /km